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Saturday, February 20, 2010

Europe is Still Under Pressure

As global markets are sizing the Euro-zone sovereign risks and the Chinese reserve requirement, the U.S. economy is giving tangible signs of recovery. The U.S. dollar, in the mean time, is finding good resistance points at current levels.


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U.S: Recovery unfolding

Bringing some order inside the troubled finances remains the main target this year in the United States and in Europe. Nevertheless, with the job market layouts having probably topped at current levels, especially in the U.S., consumer spending should rise in the coming months, albeit at a lower level compared to previous recessions. In January, consumer spending moved up by 0.5% month-on-month, more than the expected 0.4%. December and November numbers were revised up as well. The first moved to -0.1% from -0.3% and the second jumped to 2.0% from 1.8%. January’s rise was broad-based confirming that households keep on spending even after the holiday season. Sells rose 0.8% excluding auto, gasoline and building equipment. The housing market remains at contrary a corner stone of the U.S. recovery, but prices might struggle to find their way out of the bottom. Housing starts are stalling, also due to the adverse weather conditions, although the uptrend should continue. The Federal Reserve will maintain the gradual removal policy, as the initial step toward higher rates that could materialize later in the year. Policymakers still expects low growth and low inflation for the months ahead. In effect, December’s trade deficit confirms that the economic recovery is unfolding in the United States. The deficit increased to $ 40.2 billion from November’s $ 36.4 billion. Both export and import rose. The first moved up by 3.3% and the second increased by 4.8%. So, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might pass 3.5% this year. Core retail sales rose almost 6.0% annually in the past six months. The vast majority of key U.S. companies have overcome Q4 forecasts with profits rising on a pace of over 15% year-on-year excluding financials.


Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

This article contains the following sections:

U.S: Recovery unfolding

EUROPE is still under pressure

GBP/USD: testing key support lines

Monday, February 8, 2010

The Forex Market

For the last three decades Foreign Exchange market, - briefly Forex or FX, had integrated into the world's biggest financial market. The volume of daily transactions is about 1-3 trillion of US dollars. The trading instruments on this market are the currencies of different countries, so the fluctuation of currency's rates allows to gain a real profit.

Of course monetary assets of different countries exchanged since the term money appeared as well as an idea to obtain profit from currency's rates difference. Now it is not a new idea, but the transformation of foreign exchange market to the modern stage with an opportunity to conduct conversional operations of such volumes arose only after an introduction of floating rates regime by the state-members of IMF. Within this regime's framework the rate of one currency to another is defining only by the supply and demand on the market.

Presently Forex market is a global telecommunication network of banks and different financial organizations. It does not have any fixed trading place and time restrictions - the trade starts on Monday morning in New Zealand and closes on Friday evening in USA

The advantages of Forex market are:

Round-the-clock trading access: the ability to trade for 24 hours a day;

Liquidity: the market works with a huge money and gives the customers complete freedom to open or close their position of different volume;

Leverage: an ability to use leverage. It decreases requirements to the sum of the initial deposit (margin trade). So in case you deposit 10 000 USD into your account you'd have an opportunity to work with 1 000 000 USD (leverage 1:100);

Objectivity: no exterior regulated structures, so the currency's rate is establishing in accordance with current supply and demand on the market;

Globality: everyone can become a market participant irrespective to the living place, as trading requires only your skills and Internet access.

At present mostly all the operations on the market are conducting only to obtain profit. With the development of Internet and other means of communication this sector of the financial markets becomes more accessible and attractive for the investors of different levels.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Forex Glossary

ADX (Average Directional Index) — standard technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend.
Ask (Offer) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Aussie — a Forex slang name for the Australian dollar.
Bank Rate — the percentage rate at which central bank of a country lends money to the country's commercial banks.
Bid — price of the demand, the price you sell for.
Broker — the market participating body which serves as the middleman between retail traders and larger commercial institutions.
Cable — a Forex traders slang word GBP/USD currency pair.
Carry Trade — in Forex, holding a position with a positive overnight interest return in hope of gaining profits, without closing the position, just for the central banks interest rates difference.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) — a cyclical technical indicator that is often used to detect overbought/oversold states of the market.
CFD — a Contract for Difference — special trading instrument that allows financial speculation on stocks, commodities and other instruments without actually buying.
Commission — broker commissions for operation handling.
CPI — consumer price index the statistical measure of inflation based upon changes of prices of a specified set of goods.
EA (Expert Advisor) — an automated script which is used by the trading platform software to manage positions and orders automatically without (or with little) manual control.
ECN Broker — a type of Forex brokerage firm that provide its clients direct access to other Forex market participants. ECN brokers don't discourage scalping, don't trade against the client, don't charge spread (low spread is defined by current market prices) but charge commissions for every order.
ECB (European Central Bank) — the main regulatory body of the European Union financial system.
Fed (Federal Reserve) — the main regulatory body of the United States of America financial system, which division — FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — regulates, among other things, federal interest rates.
Fibonacci Retracements — the levels with a high probability of trend break or bounce, calculated as the 23.6%, 32.8%, 50% and 61.8% of the trend range.
Flat (Square) — neutral state when all your positions are closed.
Fundamental Analysis — the analysis based only on news, economic indicators and global events.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — is a measure of the national income and output for the country's economy; it's one of the most important Forex indicators.
GTC (Good Till Canceled) — order to buy or sell of a currency with a fixed price or worse. The order is alive (good) until execution or cancellation.
Hedging — maintaining a market position which secures the existing open positions in the opposite direction.
Jobber — a slang word for a trader which is aimed toward fast but small and short-term profit from an intra-day trading. Jobber rarely leaves open positions overnight.
Kiwi — a Forex slang name for the New Zealand currency — New Zealand dollar.
Leading Indicators — a composite index (year 1992 = 100%) of ten most important macroeconomic indicators that predicts future (6-9 months) economic activity.
Limit Order — order for a broker to buy the lot for fixed or lesser price or sell the lot for fixed or better price. Such price is called limit price.
Liquidity — the measure of markets which describes relationship between the trading volume and the price change.
Long — the position which is in a Buy direction. In Forex, the primary currency when bought is long and another is short.
Loss — the loss from closing long position at lower rate than opening or short position with higher rate than opening, or if the profit from a position closing was lower than broker commission on it.
Lot — definite amount of units or amount of money accepted for operations handling (usually it is a multiple of 100).
Margin — money, the investor needs to keep at broker account to execute trades. It supplies the possible losses which may occur in margin trading.
Margin Account — account which is used to hold investor's deposited money for FOREX trading.
Margin Call — demand of a broker to deposit more margin money to the margin account when the amount in it falls below certain minimum.
Market Order — order to buy or sell a lot for a current market price.
Market Price — the current price for which the currency is traded for on the market.
Momentum — the measure of the currency's ability to move in the given direction.
Moving Average (MA) — one of the most basic technical indicators. It shows the average rate calculated over a series of time periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA) etc. are just the ways of weighing the rates and the periods.
Offer (Ask) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Open Position (Trade) — position on buying (long) or selling (short) for a currency pair.
Order — order for a broker to buy or sell the currency with a certain rate.
Pivot Point — the primary support/resistance point calculated basing on the previous trend's High, Low and Close prices.
Pip (Point) — the last digit in the rate (e.g. for EUR/USD 1 point = 0.0001).
Profit (Gain) — positive amount of money gained for closing the position.
Principal Value — the initial amount of money of the invested.
Realized Profit/Loss — gain/loss for already closed positions.
Resistance — price level for which the intensive selling can lead to price increasing (up-trend).
RSI (Relative Strength Index) — indicator that measures of the power of direction price movement by comparing the bullish and bearish portions of the trend.
Scalping — a style of trading notable by many positions that are opened for extremely small and short-term profits.
Settled (Closed) Position — closed positions for which all needed transactions has been made.
Slippage — execution of order for a price different than expected (ordered), main reasons for slippage are — "fast" market, low liquidity and low broker's ability to execute orders.
Spread — difference between ask and bid prices for a currency pair.
Standard Lot — 100,000 units of the base currency of the currency pair, which you are buying or selling.
Stop-Limit Order — order to sell or buy a lot for a certain price or worse.
Stop-Loss Order — order to sell or buy a lot when the market reaches certain price. It is used to avoid extra losses when market moves in the opposite direction. Usually is a combination of stop-order and limit-order.
STP (Straight Through Processing) — an order processing that doesn't require any manual intervention and is fully automatic. In fact, 99.9% of all on-line Forex brokers support order handling with STP.
Support — price level for which intensive buying can lead to the price decreasing (down-trend).
Swap — overnight payment for holding your position. Since you are not physically receiving the currency you buy, your broker should pay you the interest rate difference between the two currencies of the pair. It can be negative or positive.
Technical Analysis — the analysis based only on the technical market data (quotes) with the help of various technical indicators.
Trend — direction of market which has been established with influence of different factors.
Unrealized (Floating) Profit/Loss — a profit/loss for your non-closed positions.
Useable Margin — amount of money in the account that can be used for trading.
Used Margin — amount of money in the account already used to hold open positions open.
Volatility — a statistical measure of the number of price changes for a given currency pair in a given period of time.
VPS (Virtual Private Server) — virtual environment hosted on the dedicated server, which can be used to run the programs independent on the user's PC. Forex traders use VPS to host trading platforms and run expert advisors without unexpected interruptions.

Forex FAQ

What is Forex?
You can read the detailed answer in the separate section of the site — "What is Forex?".

How can I start trading Forex?
You'll need to register a trading account with a Forex broker, such as Marketiva. Then you can begin using their Forex client program to buy and sell currencies. This will take less than 5 minutes of your time!

Who owns Forex and where is it located?
It's not owned by anyone in particular. Forex is an Interbank market, meaning that its transactions are conducted only between two participants - seller and the buyer. So as long as the current banking system will exist, Forex will be here. It's not connected to any specific country or government organization.

What are the working hours of Forex market?
Forex market is open from 22:00 GMT Sunday (opening of Australia trading session) till 22:00 GMT Friday (closing of USA trading session).

What is margin?
Margin is money you need to have in your broker account to secure your open position. Different brokers require different amount of margin money to keep your positions open.

What are the "long" and "short" positions?
Long position is a "buy" position, meaning that this position will be in profit if price goes up. Short position is a "sell" position, meaning that this position will be in profit if price goes down.

What is the best Forex trading strategy?
There is none. You should constantly develop your own strategies for every possible market situation, if you want to be in profit. Specific strategies can only be good for a certain period of time and for certain currency pairs.

How much money do I need to start trading Forex?
With some Forex brokers you can start trading Forex with as little as $1. Usually, the minimum amount varies from $100 to $10,000 ($100,000 and more for Interbank trading).

I can't (or don't want to) install any Forex trading software on my computer. Can I still trade Forex?
If you don't want (or it is not possible) to install new software to start trading Forex then a good option for you would be using web based trading platform. You can browse our Forex brokers list to find those which support such platform. Here is a short list of those brokers which have web based trading options:
eToro
Aurora Global Markets
Easy Forex
Forex Capital Trading
Oanda
Interactive Brokers

I've downloaded the expert advisor for MetaTrader platform but I don't know how to install it. What should I do?
You can read the MetaTrader Expert Advisors User's Tutorial to find out how to intstall those expert advisors.

I've downloaded a custom indicator for MetaTrader platform but I don't know how to install it. What should I do?
You can read the MetaTrader Indicators User's Tutorial to find out how to intstall those indicators.

Can I lose more than I invest in Forex?
No. The broker won't allow you to lose more than the available funds on your trading account. It will simply close your losing position when the resulting account balance becomes too close to zero. The loss that is bigger than the trader's deposit is a direct loss of the Forex broker. It's in the brokers' interest to prevent such losses. To secure themselves brokers implement a Stop-Out level (usually about 20%), which means that the most losing position will be closed once (free margin / used margin) * 100% becomes equal or less than this level.

Your question was not answered here?
You can try to find an answer on the Forex forum or you can contact me if the question isn't answered anywhere.

Forex Brokerage

Every Forex trader like any other professional needs tools to trade. One of these tools, which is vital to be in market, is a Forex broker and specifically for Internet - on-line Forex broker - a company which will provide real-time market information to trader and bring his orders to Forex market. While choosing a right Forex broker things to look for are the following:
Being a professional company you can trust
Provide you with real-time quotes
Execute your orders fast and accurately
Don't take a lot of commissions
Support the withdraw/deposit methods that you can use
For beginning Forex traders I recommend these four brokerage companies that are probably the best Forex brokers to start with:
FXOpen — one of the most popular and progressive brokers with MetaTrader platform and comfortable trading conditions for all kind of traders.
InstaForex — a reputable MetaTrader 4 brokers, allows Islamic Forex trading accounts, while you can deposit and withdraw money via WebMoney.
FXcast — good because you can start trading Forex with as little as 10$, use MetaTrader 4 platform and the dozen of various deposit and withdraw methods, including WebMoney, e-Bullion and wire transfer.
LiteForex — broker that supports MetaTrader 4 Forex trading platform and doesn't require a lot of money to start with.

Forex Trading Psychology

While learning a lot about market analysis and money management is an obvious and necessary step to be a successful Forex trader, you also need to master your emotions to keep your trading performance under strict control of mind and intuition. Controlling your emotions in Forex trading is often a balancing between greed and cautiousness. Almost any known psychology practices and techniques can work for Forex traders to help them keep to their trading strategies rather to their spontaneous emotions. Problems you'll have to deal while being a professional Forex trader:
Your greed
Overtrading
Lack of discipline
Lack of confidence
Blind following others' forecasts
These are very professional books on psychology written specially for financial traders:
Calming The Mind So That Body Can Perform
Emotion Free Trading
The Miracle of Discipline

Money Management in Forex

Even if you master every possible method of market analysis and will make very accurate predictions for future Forex market behavior, you won't make any money without a proper money management strategy. Money management in Forex (as well as in other financial markets) is a complex set of rules which you develop to fit your own trading style and amount of money you have for trading. Money management plays very important role in getting profits out of Forex; do not underestimate it. To get more information on money management you can read these books:
Risk Control and Money Management
Money Management (A chapter from The Mathematics of Gambling)